Despite record housing market in January, Redfin predicts slower price growth, flat home sales as mortgage rates approach 4% this year

SEATTLE–(BUSINESS WIRE)–(NASDAQ: RDFN) —House price growth, which has been in double digits since the summer of 2020, is expected to slow to an annual rate of 7% by the end of 2022, according to a new forecast from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-driven real estate brokerage.

Home sales are expected to remain relatively stable throughout the year, similar to the low annual rate of change they have shown since August due to the continued shortage of homes for sale. Redfin economists expect the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to continue to rise steadily to 3.9% over the year.

“Even though the price of buying a home has never been higher, the demand is only getting stronger,” said Redfin deputy chief economist Taylor Marr. “Some of this demand may reflect buyers’ urgency to get ahead of rate hikes, leaving a lot of uncertainty about how strong home sales will be in 2022. Nonetheless, the current imbalance in supply and demand is pushing up home prices because there are enough buyers willing to quickly buy almost any home that comes on the market. By this summer, higher prices and rates could tempt buyers out of the market.

For the four weeks ending January 30, pending sales fell 2%, the largest annual decline since June 2020. Selling activity continues to be stalled by a lack of supply, as 11% of fewer homes were put up for sale compared to the same period last year. , and total active listings fell 29% to an all-time low.

Demand from buyers remains very strong. Pending sales were 38% higher than they were two years earlier, weeks before the start of the pandemic, despite there being half as many homes for sale. Just over half (51%) of homes that found a buyer spent two weeks or less on the market, the highest rate on record for January. The rate at which homes are flying off the market is rapidly heading to a new record high, even as homes become more expensive than ever.

The estimated monthly mortgage payment for a typical home for sale climbed 23% year-over-year to an all-time high of $1,877, thanks to a combination of rising mortgage rates and asking prices, which pushed also reached a new high.

Housing Market Highlights for 400+ U.S. Metro Areas:

Unless otherwise specified, this data covers the four-week period ending January 30. Redfin’s data on the housing market goes back to 2012.

  • The median home sale price rose 14% year over year to $354,750.

  • The median asking price for newly listed homes rose 14% year-over-year to an all-time high of $369,975.

  • The monthly mortgage payment on the median asking price rose 23% from a year earlier to an all-time high of $1,877. This represents a 26% increase over the same period in 2020.

  • Pending home sales were down 2% year-over-year, the biggest year-over-year decline since June 2020. However, sales were up 38% from the same period in 2020, just before the start of the pandemic.

  • New home listings for sale were down 11% from a year earlier, the biggest drop since June 2020. Compared to January 2020, new listings were down 13%.

  • Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any time during the period) fell 29% year over year, falling to an all-time low of 438,000. Listings fell 49 % compared to the same period in 2020.

  • 40% of homes that have been under contract had an offer accepted within a week of entering the market, up from 34% in the same period a year earlier and 27% in 2020. This is the measure the highest on record in January, and the highest level since May.

  • Homes sold were on the market for a median of 29 days, down from 37 days a year earlier and 58 days in 2020.

  • 41% of homes sold above list price, compared to 33% a year earlier and 19% in 2020.

  • On average, 2.9% of homes for sale each week saw a price drop, up 0.3 percentage points from the same period in 2021, but down 0.5 percentage points from to 2020.

  • The average sale price to listing price ratio, which measures how well homes are selling relative to their asking price, was 100.2%. In other words, the average home sold for 0.2% above its asking price.

Other leading indicators of home buying activity:

  • Mortgage purchase requests increased 4% week-over-week (seasonally adjusted) in the week ending January 28. For the week ending February 3, 30-year mortgage rates held steady at 3.55%, the highest level since March 2020.

  • Touring activity through Jan. 30 was 5 percentage points behind 2021 and 5 percentage points behind 2020 compared to the first week of January, according to home touring technology company ShowingTime.

  • The Redfin homebuyer demand index fell 2% in the week ending Jan. 30 and rose 2% from a year earlier.

To view the full report, including charts and methodology, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-2022-forecast/.

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-driven real estate company. We help people find a home with brokerage, instant home buying (iBuying), rental, loan, title insurance, and home improvement services. We sell houses for more money and charge half the fees. We also run the #1 real estate brokerage site in the country. Our homebuyer clients see homes first with on-demand viewings, and our loan and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can receive an instant cash offer from Redfin or have our renovation team repair their home to sell for the best price. Our rental business helps millions of people across the country find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we’ve saved our clients over $1 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets in the United States and Canada and employ more than 6,000 people.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn more about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin’s press release mailing list, email [email protected] To see Redfin’s press center, click here.

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