Sznurki Wed, 21 Sep 2022 19:25:30 +0000 en-US hourly 1 Sznurki 32 32 Don’t expect mortgage rate relief in 2023, says Fannie Mae in new forecast Wed, 21 Sep 2022 19:25:30 +0000

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With the Federal Reserve still struggling to get inflation under control, Fannie Mae economists no longer expect mortgage rates to ease much next year, even with a “moderate recession” likely looming.

In their latest monthly outlook, forecasters at Fannie Mae again lowered their projections for home sales in 2022 and 2023 as mortgage rates recently hit new highs in 2022 awaiting further Fed tightening. .

Doug Duncan

“In our view, the recent surge in interest rates is due to the market’s recognition of two critical factors: that inflation is indeed not transitory, and that to bring it under control, the Federal Reserve will have to be resolute , even at the risk of possible recessions,” Fannie Mae chief economist Doug Duncan said in a statement. expectation of our forecast for a moderate recession beginning in the first quarter of 2023. That said, the rate hike is having the Fed’s desired effect on housing, as home price growth began to slow in June .

Home sales in 2022 are expected to drop 17.2%

Source: Fannie Mae Housing Forecast, September 2022

Last month, economists at Fannie Mae predicted a 16.2% decline in total home sales in 2022. Now, with mortgage rates surging past 6% to the highest levels since 2008, they are slumping. expect 5.71 million new and existing homes to change hands this year, which would represent a 17.2% drop from last year.

Next year, Fannie Mae expects new and existing home sales to fall another 12.8% to 4.98 million, down from August’s forecast of 5.18 million total home sales in 2023. .

The revision was mainly driven by lower expectations for new home sales, which are now expected to fall 22.3% this year to 599,000 homes. That’s more drastic than the projected 16.5% decline in existing home sales, which are now expected to hit 5.109 million this year.

Although new home inventories hit their highest level since 2009 in July, homebuilders “do not appear to be providing enough incentive to move growing inventories,” Fannie Mae analysts said. “However, many publicly traded homebuilders continued to post historically high gross margins in the second quarter, suggesting there is room for increased rebates going forward.”

Fannie Mae sees new home sales fall another 7.9% in 2023 to 552,000 and existing home sales fall 13.3% to 4.427 million.

Mortgage rates should not fall further

Source: Fannie Mae Housing Forecast, September 2022

The most drastic change to Fannie Mae’s forecast from August is the projection of the next direction mortgage rates could take. Last month, forecasters at Fannie Mae thought 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates likely peaked in the second quarter at 5.2% and would decline for five straight quarters to an average of 4.4% over the course of the year. of the second half of 2023.

But in their latest forecast, economists at Fannie Mae warn that while the economy is likely heading into a recession next year, the Fed still has some way to go before inflation is brought under control.

Mortgage rates are now expected to peak at 5.7% in the last quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2023, with only a modest decline to 5.5% by the last three months of next year.

In a Sept. 19 forecast, economists at the Mortgage Bankers Association remained slightly more optimistic, predicting rates will peak at 5.5% in the second half of 2022 before falling back to 5.0% by the end of the month. next year.

Fannie Mae economists say they see a shift in inflation dynamics that will make it harder for the Fed to pull off a soft landing.

“While we think headline inflation has likely peaked, strong rent growth and a tight labor market are leading to a more persistent inflationary trend, which has historically been difficult to contain without a general economic contraction,” they said. warned Fannie Mae forecasters.

While energy costs have eased, inflationary pressures remain high and the tight labor market “could lead to a hard-to-reverse price-wage spiral.”

From the Fed’s “theoretical perspective,” unemployment would need to rise from 3.7% to over 4.5% for labor market inflationary pressures to ease, Fannie Mae economists said.

“Even taking into account the Fed’s rate hikes to date, the current policy stance is still, arguably, near neutral, meaning a rate that is neither stimulative nor restrictive for economic activity. “said the economists at Fannie Mae. “We think market expectations are starting to price more in the possibility that the Fed will need to raise its short-term rate well above neutral and perhaps hold it there for a while in order to induce sufficient easing in the labor market to achieve price stability.

Mortgage refinances down 72.6% this year

Source: Fannie Mae Housing Forecast, September 2022

Fannie Mae’s latest forecast includes a “minor upward revision” of $101 billion to estimated mortgage originations for 2021 following annual benchmarking of Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data.

At $1.706 trillion, Fannie Mae’s forecast for the volume of mortgages purchased in 2022 remains essentially unchanged from August, thanks in part to continued appreciation in home prices. That would represent a 10.2% drop from a year ago. The volume of purchase loans is expected to decline another 1.5% in 2023 to $1.681 billion.

But rising mortgage rates have dramatically reduced the expected size of the market for 2022 and 2023 refinancing. Fannie Mae now expects mortgage lenders to refinance $731 billion in mortgages this year, down $38 billion from forecasts. in August. That would represent a drop of 72.6% from a year ago.

Fannie Mae expects refinancing volume to fall another 33% next year to $490 billion, down $102 billion from last month’s forecast.

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Dave Ramsey is a smart guy. But it’s one of his advice that I’ll never listen to Wed, 21 Sep 2022 10:00:32 +0000

Image source: Getty Images

It’s not reasonable for me.

Key points

  • Dave Ramsey is not a fan of consumer debt.
  • I think he takes that concept a bit too far when it comes to credit cards.
  • Credit cards are useful for establishing credit, earning money and dealing with financial emergencies.

Even if you don’t tend to spend your time reading personal finance blogs, you’ve probably at least heard of Dave Ramsey. He is a well-known personality who not only has his own blog, but has also made countless media appearances where he has offered a wealth of personal finance advice.

One thing Ramsey is known for is his anti-debt stance. Simply put, Ramsey doesn’t like to see consumers burdened with heavy interest payments that limit their ability to save, invest and achieve other financial goals.

I happen to agree with Ramsey on this. I’m not a fan of debt either, which is why I make it a point to always pay off my credit cards in full each month. I have also, in the past, tried to limit the non-credit card debt I have accumulated.

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When I needed to buy a new car a few years ago, I made sure to buy one that came with affordable auto loan payments. And when I bought my house about 13 years ago, I made sure I only got a mortgage that easily fit my budget.

But while I applaud Ramsey for encouraging consumers to avoid debt, there is one piece of advice I disagree with. And that may not work for you either.

Avoid credit cards altogether

If you asked Ramsey how many credit cards the average consumer should have, he would say “zero”. But I completely disagree with this line of thinking.

There is a big difference between credit card usage and credit card debt. The latter is something consumers should try to avoid to the best of their ability. (Sometimes credit card debt is unavoidable, such as when an emergency or illness strikes.) But it’s more than possible to use credit cards and benefit from them without getting into a bad financial situation.

Because I stick to a tight budget and regularly monitor my credit card usage, I can avoid carrying over a balance from one month to the next. This way, I can avoid paying interest on my purchases.

At the same time, I enjoy the benefits of having credit cards. I frequently earn money on my purchases, and in the past I’ve gotten some pretty great sign-up bonuses for spending a certain amount within months of opening new credit card accounts.

And that’s why I don’t follow Ramsey’s “don’t have a credit card” advice. I think people who can admit they lack self-control on the spending front should consider cutting their cards. But if you’re not one of those people, there’s no reason not to be.

Moreover, the reality is that sometimes emergencies do strike, and not everyone has savings money to tap into. Having a credit card could serve as a lifeline for situations like this beyond your control.

Advice taken with a grain of salt

While Ramsey may mean well when he advises consumers to avoid credit cards, that advice doesn’t work for me. And it may not work for you either, and that’s okay.

Credit cards can be a very useful financial tool that benefits you financially. And there’s no reason to assume that having them will automatically put you in debt.

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Capital One Auto Finance Loan Review | Find the best loan for you Tue, 20 Sep 2022 18:02:34 +0000

Capital One Auto Financement offers loans for new and used cars, trucks, minivans or SUVs for personal use, but the vehicle must be purchased from one of its participating dealerships. You’ll need to finance at least $4,000, and the vehicle must be no more than 10 model years old and have less than 120,000 miles.

Capital One also offers auto loan refinance for vehicles that are 10 years old or newer with a repayment amount between $7,500 and $50,000. At least one applicant or co-applicant must be listed as the registered owner on the title of the vehicle, and you must be current on your existing loan payments and, if applicable, your mortgage.

To buy an automobile, start by submitting an online prequalification request. This will use a soft credit check and won’t affect your credit score, and you could receive a decision in minutes. If approved, you will receive a personalized offer that lists all the required documents you will need to provide to the dealership, such as those proving your personal identity, residency and income.

Then shop Capital One’s Auto Navigator and find a vehicle. It’s a good idea to call the dealership ahead of time to make sure the car you want is still available or to clarify any questions you may have.

Once at the dealership, identify yourself as a pre-qualified Auto Navigator customer and show your personalized offer and literature. You will need to complete a credit application depending on the vehicle you wish to purchase, which may result in one or more difficult inquiries showing up on your credit file. To complete the purchase, you will sign a Retail Agreement, which discloses your purchase and financing terms.

To refinance a vehicle through Capital One, you’ll also begin the prequalification process and typically receive a decision within 24 hours. If approved, you’ll select the offer you prefer, complete a credit application, and undergo a rigorous credit check.

To finalize your refinance, you will sign the contract online, provide contact information for your current lender, and send in all required documentation. You will also need to provide all title transfer documents, which vary by state.

Capital One does not charge an application fee for financing or refinancing applications, and does not charge any prepayment fees. Capital One will pay your state’s transfer fee on your behalf and add it to your final loan amount.

To finance a vehicle, you will need:

  • at least $4,000.
  • a new or used car, truck, van or SUV for personal use.
  • a 10 year or newer model year and with less than 120,000 miles.

You must meet several conditions to be eligible for the Capital One refinance program:

  • The new or used car, light truck, van or SUV must be 10 years old or less and intended for personal use.
  • Your current loan repayment amount must be between $7,500 and $50,000.
  • Your current loan must not be with Capital One Auto Finance.
  • Your current lender must report your loan to a major credit bureau, federal insurance, or both Better Business Bureau-accredited and state-registered lender or state-registered car dealership.
  • At least one applicant or co-applicant must be listed as the registered owner on the vehicle title.
  • You must be up to date with your existing loan payments and, if applicable, your mortgage.

The Capital One Auto Financing website does not list any information about possible rebates.

Capital One does not disclose a minimum credit rating or required debt ratio. The minimum purchase price must be at least $4,000, but Capital One does not list a maximum loan amount for an automobile purchase.

To refinance a vehicle, your current car loan repayment amount must be between $7,500 and $50,000. However, your maximum loan amount may be based on your income, key credit characteristics, and the vehicle you are refinancing.

Capital One has been accredited by the Better Business Bureau since 1995 and has an A- rating, and a poor Trustpilot rating of 1.3 out of 5 stars based on over 1,400 reviews. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau received 422 complaints against Capital One in 2021 regarding auto loans. Most of the complaints were about obtaining the loan, managing the loan or problems at the end of the loan. Capital One gave a prompt response to all but three of these complaints, and 402 were closed with an explanation, 17 were closed with non-monetary relief, and three were closed with monetary relief.

For questions about buying a car, call 800-689-1789 from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. EST Monday through Friday and 10 a.m. to 7 p.m. ET Saturday.

For help with refinancing, call 833-292-8332 from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. ET Monday through Friday.

  • People who prefer prequalification before going to a dealership.
  • People who need to refinance an existing loan between $7,500 and $50,000.

]]> Financial services can reduce costs through digital transformation Mon, 19 Sep 2022 23:30:00 +0000

According The Reset: Accelerating the Business Value of Technology in Financial Services report, finance organizations can leverage the true value that modern technology platforms can deliver in three critical ways: start with the customer and keep an eye on value, develop workers, and drive transparency with leadership. Here’s how.

Start with the customer and keep an eye on the value

Dr. Gayan Benedict is CTO and Vice President of Client Consulting, Australia and New Zealand for Salesforce.

Our research shows that many finance organizations that embark on a transformation lose sight of the end goal during delivery and then fail to realize the end value. Why? Because organizations need an approach to technology that combines long-term strategic planning with value creation from day one.

One way to deliver value incrementally throughout execution over time, rather than at the end of the investment, is to adopt a use case-based approach to technology investment.

This means focusing on a specific outcome goal for a client or employee and extending them cumulatively over time.

For example, providing a personalized onboarding experience for banking customers can help increase efficiency while having a direct impact on customer satisfaction and higher conversion rates.

This approach has significant benefits: better control of investments and costs, the ability to pivot and accelerate work based on market changes, and an increased connection between strategy and execution. The Reset report found that organizations that implement a use case-driven approach can get to market twice as fast, reduce development costs by 50%, and double the value, compared to organizations that don’t not.

Improve worker skills and create a culture of continuous learning

The success of digital transformations requires developing basic technological knowledge throughout the organization. A lack of understanding of the capabilities and functionality that a platform provides out of the box often leads to investments that provide little value. And in the worst case, buying technology that is not fit for purpose.

One way to address the technology skills gap internally is to foster an organizational culture of continuous learning and leverage external training and learning content. Trailhead, for example, is a free online learning platform and community that democratizes knowledge and education, creating an equal and accessible path to the Salesforce ecosystem.

Our research has shown that putting technology in the hands of business units will make teams more productive and speed innovation delivery times.

Prioritize organizational change and foster transparency with leadership

Technology is often only part of the solution – the non-technical aspects, such as policies, skills development and redesigning operations, are a much larger component (typically around 70% according to BCG). Organizational change is needed to integrate and capture the value of technology.

Support must come from above for change to be implemented effectively and for true organizational adoption. BCG research has shown that working closely with leaders can increase the chances of successfully deploying a technology innovation. Early and frequent interactions with leaders foster transparency, trust and, most importantly, buy-in.

The time for faster and more efficient value creation has come

During times of disruption, the companies that continually adapt to change the fastest are the ones that will thrive. Technology will remain essential for businesses to achieve growth and meet customer expectations, but successful implementations now depend on increasing business value faster, whether by focusing on user outcomes, improving skills of employees or by guaranteeing management buy-in.

Although we cannot predict the future, organizations can be strategic and build resilience. They must rethink their approach to value creation at all levels and in all functions.

Dr. Gayan Benedict is CTO and Vice President of Client Consulting, Australia and New Zealand for Salesforce and former CIO of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

To read the full report, visit Salesforce

What is credit card hacking and what are the risks? Sun, 18 Sep 2022 20:00:00 +0000

Now that the borders are open, there’s a tempting financial tactic that seems too good to be true: credit card hacking.

As an influencer describeit allows you “to cheat the credit card system to travel anywhere for free, for the rest of your life”.

He is popular on Reddit and TikTok and promises lots of great rewards.

But like any financial strategy, it also involves risks. Here’s what you need to know.


What is Credit Card Hacking?

Although the practice has been around for some time, credit card “hacking” or credit card “churning”, as it is known in the United States, has seen a surge of interest online.

As Angel Zhong, senior lecturer in finance at RMIT, explains, credit card hackers “will open many credit cards to take advantage of bonus points and welcome offers.”

“But once they get those welcome offers [or before being hit with an annual fee] they cancel the card and repeat this process over and over.”

What are the rewards?

Many cards offer cashback programs, but using travel cards to earn travel points is one of the most popular methods of card hacking, especially when some cards include welcome bonuses like 120,000 airline rewards points.

A credit card hacker claimed fly business class from Brisbane to New York for $150, while others like the free access to airline lounges many cards offer. Some even include free travel insurance for the passionate globetrotter.

What are the risks ?

Damage your credit score

When applying for a loan such as a home loan, lenders will look at your credit score.

It is made up of the amount of money you have borrowed, the number of credit applications you have made, and whether you are paying on time. Having a large number of credit applications (hence applying for a lot of credit cards) in a short period of time, or not paying them back on time, can hurt your credit score.

According to Dr. Zhong, even a single credit application can lower your credit score in the short term.

“So if you’re thinking of buying a house and getting a mortgage in the next six months, I strongly advise against engaging in credit card churning.”