Mortgage rates today May 22 and rate forecasts for next week


Current mortgage and refinancing rates

Average mortgage rates barely budged on Friday. And that ended a week in which they had made slight progress. But such a small change will not have changed your life.

Yes, next week’s mortgage rates remain unpredictable. But, if I were to make a forecast (and I guess I should), I would expect a further modest rise, just based on recent momentum.

Find and lock a great rate (May 22, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

Program Mortgage rate APR* Switch
Conventional 30 years fixed 3.064% 3.069% -0.04%
Conventional 15 years fixed 2.25% 2.367% Unchanged
Conventional 20 years fixed 2.781% 2,873% -0.03%
Conventional 10 years fixed 1,924% 2.115% + 0.06%
30 years FHA fixed 2.813% 3.47% Unchanged
15-year fixed FHA 2.496% 3.097% Unchanged
ARM FHA 5 years 2.5% 3,201% Unchanged
Fixed VA 30 years 2,383% 2,555% + 0.01%
15-year fixed VA 2.25% 2,571% Unchanged
5-year VA ARM 2.5% 2.379% Unchanged
Prices are provided by our network of partners and may not reflect the market. Your rate may be different. Click here for a personalized quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Find and lock a great rate (May 22, 2021)


COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders change rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest news on the impact of the coronavirus on your home loan, click here.

Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?

Average mortgage rates rose again this week. And they have been staying close to their highest level for over a month.

I expect to see further increases in the weeks and months to come, as the economic recovery gathers momentum. So I would lock in my rate now if I were you. But there are no certainties and you may prefer to follow your own instincts.

Still, my personal recommendations remain:

  • LOCK in case of closure 7 days
  • LOCK in case of closure 15 days
  • LOCK in case of closure 30 days
  • LOCK in case of closure 45 days
  • LOCK in case of closure 60 days

However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.

What drives current mortgage rates

Do you remember the so called taper tantrum from 2013? Unless you are caught there, there is no reason to.

But it caused mortgage rates to rise sharply. Indeed, those for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage jumped to 4.07% in June of the same year. And that was up 3.54% in May, according to Freddie Mac records. And they continued to climb, ending 2013 at 4.46%, and staying above 4% until December 2014.

Now, I’m not in the business of giving history lessons. But you need to know the events of 2013 because many expect a repeat this year or next year.

What is a temper tantrum and why is it important?

The decrease in this context occurs when the Federal Reserve slowly reduces its asset purchases. And the tantrum comes when the markets don’t like what’s going on and throw their toys out of the stroller.

So in 2013, after five years in which it bought nearly $ 2 trillion in assets, mortgage rates skyrocketed when the Fed announced it would gradually cut back on its purchases. How to come? Well, those assets included mountains of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). The Fed was therefore keeping mortgage rates artificially low.

Right now, the Fed is buying assets again – at a rate of $ 120 billion per month. And it’s probably the biggest buyer of these MBSs and a big contributor to today’s low mortgage rates.

But, on Wednesday, the minutes of its last political meeting revealed that some of its leaders wanted to raise the subject of a second cone soon. So there is every reason to fear a second tantrum – and the significantly higher mortgage rates that could result.

More than a crisis of fear

Sadly, we’ll likely see higher mortgage rates this year, even if a tantrum is somehow avoided. See last week’s weekend edition for how fear of future inflation and the possibility of an economic boom will likely push them higher anyway.

Unfortunately, no one has a calendar for these events. We can see them arriving but we have no idea when they will arrive. And it was this – and great caution – that forced me to keep my float or lock-on-lock recommendations recently.

Of course, there is always an outside chance that an extremely bad event will stifle the recovery and force the Fed to continue buying assets. And such a catastrophe would likely cause mortgage rates to fall again, possibly to new historic lows. But there is more to fear from any of these than pricing concerns.

Economic reports next week

Chances are you can relax next week through Friday. Most of the economic reports so far are relatively minor. However, any report can shake the markets if it contains shocking and unexpected data.

But be careful on Friday. Because that brings up April’s core inflation numbers. And the markets are currently obsessed with it. Personal income and consumer spending figures are also expected on this day.

But the others listed below are unlikely to trigger pulses. Plus, regular readers will know that the markets have ignored most of the economic reports in recent weeks. The following effects may therefore be different from the usual ones:

  • Tuesday – March CoreLogic Case-Shiller National House Price Index. Plus the May Consumer Confidence Index and April New Home Sales
  • Thursday – April index of main economic indicators. Also durable goods orders for April. No more new weekly unemployment insurance claims
  • Friday – April figures for core inflation, personal income and consumer spending. Plus the May Consumer Confidence Index

So beware of Friday.

Find and lock a great rate (May 22, 2021)

Mortgage interest rate forecast for next week

Mmortgage rates could rise further this week, although they remain essentially unpredictable. And I don’t have much to do – other than the existing momentum – for this prediction.

Mortgage and refinance rates generally move in tandem. But note that refinancing rates are currently a bit higher than those for purchase mortgages. This gap will likely remain fairly constant as they evolve.

In the meantime, a recent regulatory change has made most mortgages for investment property and vacation homes more expensive.

How your mortgage interest rate is determined

Mortgage and refinancing rates are generally determined by prices in a secondary market (similar to stock or bond markets) where mortgage-backed securities are traded.

And it depends heavily on the economy. Mortgage rates therefore tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy is struggling.

Your part

But there are five ways you play an important role in determining your own mortgage rate. You can significantly affect it by:

  1. Find Your Best Mortgage Rate – They Vary Considerably From Lender to Lender
  2. Improving Your Credit Score – Even a Small Increase Can Make a Big Difference in Your Rate and Payments
  3. Save the Biggest Down Payment Possible – Lenders love you to have real skin in this game
  4. Keep your other loans small – The lower your other monthly commitments, the more mortgage you can afford
  5. Choosing Your Mortgage Carefully – Are You Better With A Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo Or Other Loan?

Time spent catching these ducks in a row can earn you lower fares.

Remember, it’s not just a mortgage rate

Be sure to factor in all of your future homeownership costs when determining how much mortgage you can afford. So focus on your “PITI” This is your Pmain (repays the borrowed amount), Iinterest (the price of the loan), (the property) Taxes and (owners) Insurance. Our mortgage calculator can help.

Depending on your mortgage type and the amount of your down payment, you may also need to pay for mortgage insurance. And it can easily be boiled down to three digits each month.

But there are other potential costs. You will therefore have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repair and maintenance costs. There is no owner to call when things go wrong!

Finally, you will have a hard time forgetting the closing costs. You can see those reflected in the Annual Percentage Rate (APR) that will be shown to you. Because it spreads them out efficiently over the term of your loan, making it higher than your regular mortgage rate.

But you may be able to get help with those closing costs. and your down payment, especially if you are a first-time buyer. Lily:

Down payment assistance programs in all states for 2021

Mortgage rate methodology

Mortgage Reports receive daily rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners. We arrive at an average rate and an APR for each type of loan to display in our graph. Because we average a range of rates, it gives you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we average the rates for the same types of loans. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The end result is a good overview of daily rates and how they have changed over time.


About Scott Conley

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