Mortgage and refinance rates, June 27

Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates

Average mortgage rates rose significantly last Friday. But the increase was much smaller than the falls seen earlier in the week. And the last seven days have been favorable to these tariffs.

So far this morning, it seems likely that today’s mortgage rates will rise again. But that could change as the day goes on.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Program Mortgage rate APR* To change
30-year fixed conventional 5.868% 5.903% -0.02%
15-year fixed conventional 5.142% 5.201% Unchanged
20-year fixed conventional 5.895% 5.95% -0.04%
10-year fixed conventional 5.271% 5.362% -0.09%
30-year fixed FHA 6.139% 6.998% +0.01%
15-year fixed FHA 5.351% 5.841% -0.03%
30-year fixed PV 5.481% 5.707% Unchanged
15-year fixed VA 5.508% 5.883% Unchanged
Pricing is provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate may be different. Click here for a personalized quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?

Don’t lock in on a day when mortgage rates look set to drop. My recommendations (below) are intended to provide longer-term suggestions on the general direction of these rates. Thus, they do not change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

My message has not changed. Most of the rises and falls in mortgage rates we have seen recently are due to market volatility rather than a change in underlying fundamentals.

Of course, no one can see the future with certainty. But I think the increases in these rates should outweigh the decreases for a few months to come.

So my personal longer-term rate lock recommendations should remain:

  • TO BLOCK if closing seven days
  • TO BLOCK if closing 15 days
  • TO BLOCK if closing 30 days
  • TO BLOCK if closing 45 days
  • TO BLOCK if closing 60 days

>Related: 7 tips for getting the best refinance rate

Market Data Affecting Today’s Mortgage Rates

Here is an overview of the situation this morning around 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared to around the same time last Friday, was:

  • The yield on 10-year treasury bills went from 3.10% to 3.16%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular treasury yields
  • Main stock indices were mixed shortly after opening. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers bond prices and raises yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are weaker. But it’s an imperfect relationship
  • Oil prices rose to $106.86 from $105.40 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a major role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity
  • Gold prices bit to $1,831 from $1,827 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It’s generally better for rates when gold goes up and worse when gold goes down. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates down
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed Index – rose to 31 from 27 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “greedy” investors cause bond prices to fall (and interest rates to rise) when they leave the bond market and turn to equities, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

* A movement of less than $20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a change of 1% or less. We therefore only consider significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Market and rate warnings

Prior to the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess of what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. We are still making daily calls. And are usually right. But our accuracy record won’t reach its former high levels until things stabilize.

So use the markets only as an indication. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be relied upon. But, with this caveat, today, mortgage rates are expected to rise. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Important Notes About Today’s Mortgage Rates

Here are some things you should know:

  1. Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is struggling. But there are exceptions. Lily ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
  2. Only “top tier” borrowers (with great credit scores, large down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultra-low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
  3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements – although they all generally follow the larger trend over time
  4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rates unchanged
  5. Refinance rates are generally close to purchase rates.

There’s a lot going on right now. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks or months to come.

Are mortgage and refinance rates going up or down?

This morning’s Wall Street Journal (paywall) kicks off with an article about the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Don’t worry if you’ve never heard of it. Few have. But it is often called “the central bank of the central bank”.

Central banks are organizations that set monetary policy and regulate banking operations. Ours is the Federal Reserve. Others include the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England.

Yesterday the BIS published its 242-page annual report. Here is the Journal’s take on the crucial content of this report:

The world’s central banks need to raise interest rates sharply, even if it does significantly hurt growth, [BIS] warned on Sunday. If they don’t, the world risks a 1970s-style inflationary spiral…Even if they do, the global economy could face a toxic combination of low or negative growth and high inflation, known as stagflation, he said.

The annual report itself also stated: “Gradually raising policy rates at a pace below the rise in inflation means a real decline [after inflation] interest rate. This is difficult to reconcile with the need to control inflation risks.

strong medicine

In other words, the BIS suggests that global central banks are raising interest rates too slowly. And, if they want to curb inflation, they will have to go much further and go much faster.

It’s unclear how seriously markets will take the report today. We will find out as the hours go by. But it is certainly an explosive message that has the potential to drive up mortgage rates.

Read the weekend edition of this daily article for more information.

Recent trends

For much of 2020, the general trend in mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new weekly all-time low was set 16 times that year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on January 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed rate mortgages.

Rates then plummeted, moving little for the next eight or nine months. But they started to increase noticeably in September. Unfortunately, they’ve mostly been touring since the start of 2022, although May was a milder month.

Freddie’s June 23 report places that same weekly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages at 5.81% (with 0.8 fees and points), at the top compared to 5.78% the previous week. But this survey will not have captured the last falls of the week.

Note that Freddie expects you to buy discount points (“with 0.8 fee and points”) at close which earn you a lower rate. If you don’t, your rate will be closer to what we and others quote.

Expert Mortgage Rate Forecasts

Longer term, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates. .

And here is their current rate forecast for the last three quarters of 2022 (Q2/22, Q3/22, Q4/22) and the first quarter of next year (Q1/23).

The figures in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. Those of Fannie were published on June 16 and those of the MBA on June 10. Freddie’s were released on April 18.

Forecaster Q2/22 Q3/22 Q4/22 Q1/23
Fannie Mae 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Freddie Mac 4.8% 4.8% 5.0% 5.0%
MBA 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0%

Of course, given so many unknowables, the current crop of predictions could be even more speculative than usual. Recent events certainly make them look like that.

Find your lowest rate today

You should do a lot of comparison shopping no matter what type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau states:

“Shopping around for your mortgage can save you real money. It may not seem like much, but saving even a quarter point of interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the term of your loan.

Mortgage Rate Methodology

Mortgage reports receive daily rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average a range of prices, it gives you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we average the rates for the same loan types. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The end result is a good overview of daily rates and how they change over time.

The information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute advertising for products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the policy or position of Full Beaker, its officers, parent company or affiliates.

About Scott Conley

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